Saturday, April 14, 2007

Ice is melting, spring is coming- be optimistic about the bilateral relationship between China and Japan

Since China’s Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s seminal visit to Japan which was to be known as the “melt the ice” trip, following and relating to Mr Abe’s “break the ice” trip. Such mutual friendly action seemed to demonstrate the bright hope from leaders in both sides, whereas if we consider it dispassionately, as the saying, “ no permanent friendship, only permanent benefit”, they just exploited each other, Mr Abe strengthened his power, Chinese government also elevated the reputation so they both avoid the sensitive topic, therefore people began to doubt how much development they obtain in essence?
Today, an essay from The Straits Times written by Mr Eyal with the name of “ Japan and China’s precarious spring” discuss this issue. As the title suggested, the author seemed not to be very optimistic about the prospect of the relationship between two countries. In fact , his worries were sensible. As he pointed the thorny conflicts such as the exploitation of the gas deposits in the East China Sea and Japan's application for the permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council will be obstacle to influence the agenda. Another unstable factor is that the historic hostility will stimulate many Chinese people’s prejudice against Japanese to a certain extent . Although leaders in both sides may adopt concession to relieve the tension, however,as the author doubted, is their determination genuine? The author’s metaphor in the end impressed me a lot, “ even as the ice melts drifting icebergs remain. And as the passengers of the Titanic - that supposedly unsinkable ship-discovered, icebergs can be deadly.’ I think his description about the current situation was quite accurate and proper, but I do not agree with his judge : icebergs can be deadly.’
As we know many tragedies in history were triggered by the trivial conflicts, however, under modern world’s regulation, no country dares to start the war hastily(America is bogged down in Iraq ) since the International Situation became more and more complicated,it demands the discernment and judgment of the leaders .Just like Titanic’s tragedy which was caused by captain’s carelessness to a large extent, if the head of each country lead their country to a right direction and impletement pragmatic policies, China and Japan are able to sail safely. In order to benefit more, conflicts among countries are usually exorable, whereas each country is able to control their appetite and anger to avoid the war. Negotiation and concession play an important role in today’s world. The era has changed, although we still need to be cautious about the spats, we should not be pessimistic about the bright future.
Return to the relationship between China and Japan, as I mentioned, the friendship among countries is temporary, the permanent bridge between countries is benefit. In fact, leaders in both sides are in the dilemma to cope the relationship. Since Deng Xiaoping’s reform, China has not differentiated friends or foes by ideology, pragmatism was espoused as the diplomatic formula. They have been aware of the economic development of Japan and the considerable income if they cooperate. based on this, they inclined to establishing a reciprocal mould so they only open an eye about some radical actions in Japan , but they are also under the pressure to be regarding to be powerless by the public. As for the Japanese leaders, if their stances are too tender, their will lose the support of the radical people in the party; if they behave too uncompromisingly, they will lose the cooperation and trust of China. Thus, the relationship between China and Japan is very subtle and complicated.
Based on this, how should we predict the prospect of the relationship between China and Japan? The norm should be if both countries agree to the necessity of establishing a reciprocal development mould which will be decisive to the economic. China is a big market , and Japan is at the peak of the economic now . Without the support of China, Japan will not maintain its status. As a lively country which develop very fast, China also try its bestto attract the technology, investment and management experience from Japan. Obviously, such relationship will last for a long time, so both countries would not magnify the conflict, instead, they will try to strengthen their relationship regardless of historical conflicts and some radical powers.
I admit that the process of strengthening their friendship will not be smooth , but we should be optimistic about the beautiful future, an era belongs to Asia is coming.

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